Weekly Ecomonic Update

Weekly Economic Summary – July 23, 2010
 

OVERVIEW ~ July 12 through 16 ~ The optimism that pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) higher through Thursday, July 15, lost whatever power it had by Friday, July 16, when it fell more than 266 points to 10097.90. As the DJIA lost ground, interest rates also edged lower. The 10-year Treasury note, which began the week at 3.24%, fell to 2.94% at the close of the week; the HSH average 30-year mortgage rate (which includes jumbo rates) held at 4.98%; and the Freddie Mac average rate edged down to 4.57%. And, indicative of slackening confidence in our nation’s economic recovery, the dollar lost ground against the euro all week.
FOCUS ~ Analysts had been suggesting the stock markets would benefit from higher corporate earnings reports, but the belief (or, at least, hope) that improving corporate earnings data would be announced last week faded by Friday.

Instead of reigniting the markets with good news about earnings and, indeed, proving that the markets had overreacted to increased worries about the economic recovery, corporate earnings and corporate revenue reports were mostly lower than expected. By the end of Friday, all thirty stocks in the DJIA had lost value.

This can be read, in part, as a decline in confidence in stocks. Not surprisingly, the indicators that suggest what is happening in the real estate market are similarly weak. The purchase money loan applications component of the Mortgage Bankers Association indices of mortgage applications fell another 3.1% to 163.3, down 36.9% from a year ago. And the July National Association of Home Builders Market Index, measuring the relative optimism (and pessimism) among builders about the new-home market, was down 12.5% from the Association’s June reading, and 17.6% from its year-ago reading.

We have seen, on a nearly weekly basis, the inclination of this market to turn around, rising when analysts were most certain that it would continue falling, and falling when it seemed certain to rise.

The week does demonstrate one thing, however. When market conditions weaken, interest rates decline still more. Home (and other) financing simply becomes more affordable, and that fact continues to support the markets in this uncertain

Loan-to-Value Ratios Spike Following Wave of Reappraisals, Says Trepp

 

Loan-to-Value Ratios Spike Following Wave of Reappraisals, Says Trepp

Jul 21, 2010 11:11 AM, By Matt Valley, NREI Editor-in-Chief

 

Special servicers face a daunting task in trying to resolve billions of dollars in troubled commercial real estate loans based on new research from Trepp LLC. Of the 1,125 CMBS loans on properties that were reappraised during the first half of this year, 986 recorded loan-to-value ratios of greater than 100% largely due to falling valuations.

It’s a cause for concern because the unpaid principal balance exceeded the new property appraisals by a wide margin in many cases. The average loan-to-value ratio among the 1,125 CMBS loans in the survey sample was a whopping 160%, up from 72.7% when the loans were securitized. (The 1,125 loans total $15.4 billion in volume.)

“In many cases you really almost have no choice but to have a distressed sale of the property because the value of the loan is less than the mortgage outstanding,” says Paul Mancuso, vice president with Trepp, a New York-based commercial real estate data and analytics firm.

“The new valuations will go a long way in determining the best workout strategy for a loan. The end goal is to preserve the most value for the CMBS trust,” emphasizes Mancuso.

Rather than sell real estate assets at fire sale prices, however, many special servicers prefer to work with financially strapped borrowers to extend existing loan terms in the hope that the tide will eventually turn in their favor.

“Why are you extending a loan right now?” Macuso says rhetorically. “Because you believe that we have fundamentally reached the bottom of the market. People are almost immune to bad news right now. It can only get better. The hope is that if you extend for 12 to 24 months the fundamentals of both the property and the economic environment will have improved enough to generate positive cash flow.”

Worst performers

Not surprisingly, loans originated from 2005 through 2007 dominate the list of underwater properties. The period was characterized by inflated property valuations. For example, when a $22 million CMBS loan on the Northland Inn hotel and conference center in suburban Minneapolis was originated in 2006, the appraised value of the asset was $34.2 million. Today’s appraised value on Northland Inn— whose status is classified by Trepp as real estate owned (REO)— is just $2.5 million (see table above).

In the survey sample, 300 of the 986 loans in special servicing with loan-to-values exceeding 100% are in the retail sector, followed by multifamily (245), office (183), lodging (126) and other sectors (132). By dollar volume, the office sector has the largest concentration of loans under water ($3.59 billion), followed by retail ($3.24 billion), multifamily ($2.97 billion), and lodging ($2.1 billion).

In total, 1,097 loans in the sample lost a staggering 51% of their value, falling from $23.9 billion at securitization to $11.8 billion currently. Conversely, only 22 of the 1,125 loans in the sample experienced an appreciation in property value since the loans were securitized.

Loan-to-Value Ratios Spike Following Wave of Reappraisals, Says Trepp

FHA apprasial changes coming

By Ken Harney | Columnist


WASHINGTON – Picture this: You’ve signed a contract to sell your house. Your buyers say they’ve nailed down the right mortgage. All is well. But then the appraisal comes in low – $25,000 to $50,000 under what was agreed in the contract.

The lender insists on cutting the mortgage amount to reflect the lower appraised value. You refuse to negotiate anywhere near the price indicated by the appraisal, and suddenly – poof! The whole deal is off. You, the buyers and the realty agents involved are all left sputtering over the appraisal that scuttled the transaction.

This scenario is not unusual in many markets across the country, say homebuilders, realty agents and appraisers. One little-publicized reason why: Lenders unilaterally may be lowering the numbers on the appraisals submitted to them in order to avoid accusations that the loans they sell to giant investors Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac are based on inflated appraisals – even slightly inflated. Such value inflations can expose lenders to dreaded “buyback” demands, forcing them to repurchase loans at huge costs.

The vice chairman of the National Association of Realtors’ Appraisal Committee, Frank K. Gregoire of St. Petersburg, Fla., says it’s a widespread problem – large numbers of legitimate home sales “sabotaged by lenders and underwriters arbitrarily reducing the value estimate” provided by the appraiser.

Typically, Gregoire says, the lender orders a low-cost electronic valuation – based on publicly available statistical data with no on-site inspections – to review the accuracy of what was submitted by the appraiser. If there’s a discrepancy between what the computer says and the appraiser’s report, the lender’s underwriters sometimes simply cut the number – even if this means knocking the real estate transaction off track. Or they demand an immediate explanation from the appraiser.

But all this may be about to change. Effective Sept. 1, Fannie Mae is prohibiting lenders who sell it loans from changing appraisers’ numbers. In guidance issued June 30, Fannie Mae said lenders must contact appraisers to “resolve” any disagreements about the valuation. If that’s not possible, they should order a second appraisal – not just chop the value supporting the real estate contract.

Appraisers applauded the new rule. “This is huge,” said Gary Crabtree, president of Affiliated Appraisers of Bakersfield, Calif., and a member of the national government relations committee of the Appraisal Institute, an industry group. Pat Turner, an appraiser in Richmond, Va., said Fannie’s new requirement “is great news for consumers” because loan underwriters hundreds of miles from the property “no longer will be able to change the appraiser’s valuation” simply because they pulled a lower number off a computer.

Turner said these electronic models “are often inaccurate,” and provide no information on property condition. He said an appraisal completed recently in Virginia was challenged by a review company based in California using a proprietary electronic valuation system. The reviewer wanted to know why Turner hadn’t used a specific property in the area as a “comparable” in doing his appraisal on the house. Turner checked out the suggested “comp,” and it turned out to be a vacant lot, worth far less than the house – not a true comp “by any stretch of the imagination.”

Fannie Mae’s new guidelines also attempt to clarify other issues that have arisen during the past year, including the widespread use of inexperienced appraisers who are unfamiliar with local market conditions. Realtors, builders and mortgage brokers have complained to Congress that rules adopted by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in 2009 encouraged lenders to use “appraisal management” companies to value properties.

Those companies, in turn, often pay appraisers deeply discounted fees – half off traditional prevailing rates in some cases – and require them to complete their assignments far faster than normal turnaround times. Critics have charged that low-budget appraisers working for management companies frequently travel long distances to do their valuations, have minimal access to local realty data, and make excessive use of foreclosures and short sales as comparables – thereby depressing the values of non-distressed sales in the area.

Fannie’s letter attempts to clarify its “appraiser selection” standards. Tops on the list: Appraisers should be experienced, “have the requisite knowledge” about local market conditions, plus access to all local data sources. Fannie also emphasized that the demonstrated experience of an appraiser should always trump fees or turnaround times – a clear swipe at management companies who literally bid out their work on the latter two criteria.

Asked whether Freddie Mac plans to issue similar rules on appraisal quality standards, a spokesman said “we’re definitely looking at it.”

Published in: on July 20, 2010 at 15:18  Leave a Comment  
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Market Update: Interest Rates

It sounds like a broken record…but rates continue to stay at record levels with no sign that rates are going to increase anytime soon!

30 year fixed rates are averaging 4.75% with no points and approximately 4.50% with an origination fee (which is the rate quoted on a national basis).

The 10 year fixed w/ 30 year amortization is a great program to consider with rates at 4.25% on average! How many home buyers stay in a home or mortgage longer than 10 years?

Fixed rates are hard to pass up in this market, however this 10 year program is a great alternative to a lower monthly payment…

Have a great weekend!

War for Talent Hits Brokerage Firms

 

War for Talent Hits Brokerage Firms

Jul 15, 2010 10:42 AM, By Ben Johnson, NREI Contributor

 

Faced with lower volume in leasing and sales transactions, major brokerage firms have struggled to maintain their coveted standing among the largest in the nation. But as transactions begin to tick up in 2010, companies are warring among themselves when it comes to poaching experienced talent.

The latest NREI Top Brokerage Survey clearly shows how far business activity at the largest U.S. real estate services firms has fallen. While Los Angeles-based CB Richard Ellis remains atop the heap, the total amount of its investment sales and leasing transactions fell 30% from 2008 to 2009 to $97.2 billion.

Similarly, the total amount of leasing and investment sales transactions at Chicago-based Jones Lang LaSalle plunged 43% on a year-over-year basis to $47 billion. However, sales have improved in a number of markets in 2010. In Washington, D.C., for instance, Jones Lang LaSalle’s Investment Sales team completed nearly $500 million in office, retail and land sales in the first half of the year.

New York-based Cushman & Wakefield saw the total dollar value of leasing and investment sales transactions drop from $75.8 billion to $53 billion, a 30% dip, from 2008 to 2009.

One of the major fallouts from the slower deal flow in 2008 and 2009 has been reduced brokerage staffs, as the major firms cut scores of idle brokers from their ranks. Among the first to go were many junior brokers and support staff. Translation: In 2010, experience is now at a premium. Brokers who couldn’t add value for their clients as the market soured have been weeded out.

“It won’t be uncommon to see a more mature real estate industry with people who continue to stay vital longer,” says Christopher Ludeman, president of the Americas brokerage operation at CB Richard Ellis. “The shelf life of brokers in our business is longer.”

Deals pick up

Thanks to improving transaction volume in 2010, the landscape for retaining and recruiting new talent is becoming more competitive. This year major brokerages are playing a game of one-upsmanship in announcing their latest hires.

In March, Jones Lang LaSalle snatched the investment banking trio of Thomas Fish, Michael Melody and Thomas Melody, who served as vice chairmen at CBRE.

In late April, Grubb & Ellis announced its hiring of Jeff Majewski away from CBRE to run its debt and equity operation. He was formerly chief operating officer of CBRE’s debt and equity finance group and senior managing director of its capital markets group.

Recently CBRE countered those salvos with its own announcement, trumpeting the fact that it had hired 30 new senior brokerage pros from January through April 2010. That figure pales in comparison to the hundreds of brokers CBRE laid off in the past two years, but it was obviously trying to make a larger point — it is actively recruiting senior-level talent while trying to maintain an overall lower cost structure.

In its first-quarter earnings conference call in late April, CB Richard Ellis CEO Brett White felt the need to address the firm’s hiring practices.

“Competitively, people in this business don’t move for [commission] split. They’re smarter than that,” said White on the conference call. “They move for platform, and the platform that we have, the platform that our very worthy competitor [Jones Lang LaSalle] has are terrific platforms. I think you’re going to find that the highest-quality talent is going to end up generally at those two firms.”

And so the hiring game seems destined to play out for some time, particularly as firms move more aggressively to fill perceived service gaps with experienced brokers.

“One priority is to add and upgrade talent to increase market share and expand our expertise in new product lines such as healthcare, retail, and industrial,” says Jones Lang LaSalle’s chief operating and financial officer Lauralee Martin.

Certainly the brokerage business has become more complex as firms recover and staff up to offer one-stop solutions demanded by their corporate clients. That puts a further premium on experienced talent

“Whether it’s us or one of our competitors, talent management is very important,” says Ludeman. “Ours is an industry where I wish that the talent pool was broader and deeper, but finding the right people and keeping the right people will be the foundation of success or failure for companies.”

War for Talent Hits Brokerage Firms

National Flood Insurance Program Extended-Update

 

National Flood Insurance Program Extended until Sept. 30

July 2, 2010

Another real estate victory was achieved June 30, 2010 when Congress passed the National Flood Insurance Program Extension Act of 2010 (HR 5569), reauthorizing the extension of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) until September 30, 2010.

The bill is retroactive and covers the “lapse period” that began June 1, 2010, thereby allowing any stalled transactions to move forward.

Any new policy applications or renewals that were signed and submitted during the lapsed period will be effective from the date of application.  In the case of waiting periods, the waiting period will start from the date of application.

About the National Flood Insurance Program

The NFIP provides flood insurance to homeowners in participating communities in flood-prone areas, who could not otherwise obtain coverage due to cost or ineligibility. Without insurance provided through NFIP, property owners in federally designated areas across more than 10,000 communities nationwide (including areas throughout the Cincinnati region and Southwest Ohio ) could not obtain mortgages.

The NFIP also produces the Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs), which are critical for the transaction of properties located in, or adjacent to, a floodplain. If these maps are not updated regularly, the information may be incorrect and a buyer may be unaware that a property is at an increased risk for flooding.

Additional Background and Issue Summary

Natural disasters, such as hurricanes, floods, and earthquakes, are devastating for communities and individuals, and are costly to insurers, and state and federal governments.

Insurers have responded to the costs of recent natural disasters by raising premiums or declining to write policies in disaster prone areas. Without a greater government role in property insurance, many homeowners and potential home buyers may not be able to obtain insurance coverage.

As a result, there may not be sufficient resources or coverage in many parts of the country to help homeowners and their communities recover from future natural disasters.

Taxed credit closing date Extended passed!!!!! just released

Congress — both the U.S. House and Senate — passed the

Homebuyer Assistance and Improvement Act of 2010 (HR 5623), which extends the

Closing Deadline for Homebuyer-Tax-Credit eligible transactions to

September 30, 2010 (instead of June 30). 

This extension of the Closing Deadline

applies only to transactions with ratified contracts in place as of April 30, 2010 but not yet closed. 

Up to 180,000 homebuyers nationwide (including approx. 8,500 in Ohio) would have lost their tax credit had Congress not passed this extension.

 

What happened

The Senate approved the legislation – by

unanimous consent – last night at 9:40 pm.

 

The House approved the legislation on Tuesday, June 29 by a vote of

409-5.

 

The legislation provides a seamless transition.  There is no “gap” between June 30 and the time when the bill will be signed into law by President Obama (likely to occur today).

 

Government Affairs staff from the National Association of REALTORS® worked vigorously with Congressional leaders on both sides of the political spectrum to get this legislation enacted.  The impact of

RPAC does work!

Tax Credit Closing date extension update (new)

 

Here is the most recent update regarding the

Homebuyer Tax Credit and possible extension of the June 30

th Closing Deadline.

 

What has happened

The United States House of Representatives passed today (June 29) HR 5623 – the

Homebuyer Assistance and Improvement Act of 2010 – by a vote of

409-5.

 

The bill would extend the deadline for closing tax-credit-eligible transactions from June 30 to September 30, 2010.

 

What’s next

The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) has worked vigorously to get the Closing Deadline extended. 

With this victory in the House, the bill now moves to the Senate where the outcome is much less certain.  It may or may not happen.

 

The best advice

still is to proceed with any pending transactions as if the June 30, 2010 closing date will remain final and binding.

 

NAR will continue lobbying the Senate to pass legislation similar to HR 5623.

 

We will continue to provide updates on this issue as they occur.

 

Tax Credit closing date extension update:

As you will recall, we emailed you last week about U.S. Senate passage of an amendment that would extend the homebuyer tax credit “Closing Deadline” from the current June 30 date to September 30, 2010.

That amendment was part of a larger piece of legislation referred to as the “Extenders Bill.”

Unfortunately, the bill failed passage in the Senate three times this week.

The National Association of REALTORSâ is working closely with key Members of Congress, the Senate, and Senior Congressional Staff on the extension of the June 30, 2010 closing deadline for contracts eligible for the Homeowner Tax Credit.

The best advice is to proceed with any pending transactions as if the June 30, 2010 closing date will remain final and binding.

NAR is pursuing all possible options with senior congressional staff to determine what other legislation may be available for passing a June 30 extension.  Each of the possible options presents difficult obstacles, but NAR’s efforts to clear the way are ongoing.

The Senate will NOT have any votes today (Friday, June 25).  This will push the Tax Credit Extension deadline to the week of June 28, 2010.

Should Congress extend the date, information will be posted on www.realtor.org/government_affairs as soon as it happens.

The final outcome will be posted on www.realtor.org/government_affairs on July 1, 2010.

We will provide updates on this issue as they occur.  If you have any questions or need additional information, please contact me at 513-842-3014 or mquarry@cabr.org.

Apartments Stage a Comeback as Renters Return in Surprising Numbers

 

After two years of rising vacancies and slumping rents, apartment owners have reason to be cheerier these days.

According to the latest survey of 169 markets across the U.S. by researcher Reis, the national apartment vacancy rate peaked at a record 8% in the fourth quarter of 2009 and remained unchanged in the first quarter of 2010. Asking rents increased by a scant 0.1% in the first quarter, but that was the first gain since the third quarter of 2008.

Some 20,000 apartment units were absorbed in the first quarter of 2010, which is the strongest first-quarter showing in the past 10 years, according to Victor Calanog, director of research at Reis. “The multifamily market appears to be on the cusp of recovery. If so, pricing and transaction activity will rise and the window of opportunity for landing good deals may close soon,” says Calanog.

Rental demand drove the occupancy rate for downtown Chicago apartments higher in the first quarter, to 93.6% from 91.4% in the fourth quarter of 2009, according to consulting firm Appraisal Research Counselors.

The latest results surprised long-time industry watchers, including Robert Bach, senior vice president and chief economist at Grubb & Ellis. However, Bach is concerned about the abundant supply of empty condos and single-family homes that are entering the rental market in hard-hit areas like South Florida and Phoenix. He believes they are casting a shadow over traditional apartment communities, and siphoning off potential renters.

“I’m surprised the apartment fundamentals have bottomed out this quickly, but as long as there are these shadow units out there, then it’s going to be interesting to see if the apartment market can recover independent of that,” says Bach.

The rest of 2010 will be a telling barometer, notes Calanog. “The next two quarters will offer critical perspective as to whether positive rent growth is sustainable.” Calanog does expect the vacancy rate to improve over the next five years, dropping to 6.6% in 2014.

Unemployment stings young Americans

Certainly one of the most closely watched keys to the short-term apartment market turnaround is the jobs picture. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. economy added 290,000 jobs in April, the largest gain since March 2006. That followed a revised 230,000 increase in March. Still, the overall unemployment rate rose from 9.7% in March to 9.9% in April, a sign that more Americans are starting to look for jobs.

According to some observers, danger lurks at the deep end of the renter pool. The primary renter market base, people aged 20-30, comprises 70% of the total U.S. apartment market, and that segment is recovering more slowly than others.

As an example, the unemployment rate among Americans aged 20-24 was 15.8% in March, but jumped to 17.2% in April. “The unemployment rate for young people has climbed faster than it has for the labor market in general,” says Sam Chandan, global chief economist and executive vice present at researcher Real Capital Analytics.

According to Chandan, the rental pool is not being supported by new entrants of young people graduating with jobs. “We need job growth among the younger age groups to drive apartment demand. There’s got to be some replacement there.”

Compounding the situation, one of the biggest challenges to recovery in this market is older, more skilled workers who are willing to take lower paying jobs just to find work. Typically this segment is more inclined to own rather than rent. “This is an issue that’s going to weigh on the performance of the apartment market,” says Chandan.

Apartments Stage a Comeback as Renters Return in Surprising Numbers