| Existing Home Sales Rose 5% in December:
Home sales rose in December to the highest pace in nearly a year. The gain coincides with other signs that show the troubled housing market improved at the end of last year. The National Association of Realtors said Friday that sales increased 5 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.61 million, the best level since January 2011 and the third straight monthly increase. Sales are increasing at a time when the market is flashing other positive signs. Mortgage rates are at record-low levels. Homebuilders have grown slightly less pessimistic because more people are saying they might be open to buying a home this year. And home construction picked up in the final quarter of last year. The median sales price rose 2.3 percent to $164,500 in December. |
|
What Happened to Rates Last Week?
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) lost -91 basis points from last Friday to the prior Friday which moved mortgage rates upward. |
| What to Watch Out For This Week:
The following are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises: Courtesy of Stephanie Halpin Fairway Mortgage |
Mortgage and Housing sales data update
Updates from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac: Changes coming to help borrower’s refinance
Yesterday, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) announced a series of changes in an effort to attract more eligible borrowers who will benefit from refinancing their home mortgage. I wanted to make a list of some bullet points highlighting the details.
Highlights
- Removing current 125% loan to value ceiling for fixed-rate mortgages backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. This means there is no ceiling for how underwater a borrower is on their mortgage.
- Waiving certain representations and warranties that lenders commit to in making loans owned or guaranteed by Fannie or Freddie. (This refers to title insurance.)
- Eliminating the need for an appraisal where there is an automated valuation model (technology driven report that deciphers estimated value in seconds).
Eligibility
- Existing mortgage must have been sold to Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac on or before 5/31/2009
- Homeowner must be current on their mortgage payment with no late payments in the past 6 months and no more than 1 late payment in the past 12 months
- You can find out if your loan is securitized by Fannie or Freddie by going to http://www.FannieMae.com/loanlookup/ or https://ww3.FreddieMac.com/corporate/
These changes go into effect on November 15th of this year. If you, or folks you know have a mortgage and they don’t have 20% equity or are even underwater and not sure they can refinance please forward this email along. Congress estimates there are about 4 million homeowners in the country who can benefit from these changes.
Thanks and have a wonderful day.
Coutesy of
Timothy P. O’Brien
Zipfel Mortgage Group| Mortgage Planner
3440 Edwards Avenue
Cincinnati, OH 45208
Fax:866-904-3470
Email: tim@zipfelmortgage.com
Website: http://www.zipfelmortgage.com/
Just Released: Ohio Unemployment rate July ’11 (State County Map)
Ohio and U.S. Employment Situation (Seasonally Adjusted)
Ohio’s unemployment rate was 9.0 percent in July, up slightly from 8.8
percent in June, according to data released this morning by the Ohio Department
of Job and Family Services (ODJFS). Ohio’s nonfarm wage and salary employment
increased 6,500 over the month, from the revised 5,106,900 in June to 5,113,400
in July.
The number of workers unemployed in Ohio in July was 529,000, up from 517,000
in June. The number of unemployed has decreased by 60,000 in the past 12 months
from 589,000. The July unemployment rate for Ohio was down from 10.0 percent in
July 2010.
The U.S. unemployment rate for July was 9.1 percent, about unchanged from 9.2
percent in June.
Total Nonagricultural Wage and Salary Employment (Seasonally
Adjusted)
Ohio’s nonfarm payroll employment increased 6,500 over the
month, from 5,106,900 in June to 5,113,400 in July, according to the latest
business establishment survey conducted by ODJFS.
Goods-producing industries, at 821,200, were up 9,100 from June, driven by an
increase in manufacturing (+7,900) and slight improvements in construction
(+1,100) and mining and logging (+100). Service-providing industries decreased
2,600 over the month to 4,292,200. The most significant losses occurred in
leisure and hospitality (-6,500) and educational and health services (-2,900).
Other industries losing jobs included trade, transportation, and utilities
(-500), and government (-400). Professional and business services (+6,000),
financial activities (+1,000), other services (+500), and information (+200)
experienced over-the-month gains.
Over the past 12 months, nonagricultural wage and salary employment advanced
74,100. Service-providing industries added 55,800 jobs. The most significant
gains occurred in educational and health services (+25,000), professional and
business services (+20,000), and leisure and hospitality (+11,300). Trade,
transportation, and utilities (+5,700), other services (+4,400), and financial
activities (+1,800) also experienced growth. Government declined 11,900 and
information lost 500 jobs. Goods-producing industries increased 18,300 over the
year. Manufacturing added 11,900 jobs, as a gain in durable goods (+15,800)
exceeded a loss in nondurable goods (-3,900). Construction (+5,900) and mining
and logging (+500) also increased from July 2010.
EDITOR’S NOTE: All data cited are produced in cooperation with the U. S.
Department of Labor. Data sources include Current Population Survey (U.S. data);
Current Employment Statistics Program (nonagricultural wage and salary
employment data); and Local Area Unemployment Statistics Program (Ohio
unemployment rates). More complete listings of the data appear in the monthly
Ohio Labor Market Review. Unemployment rates for all Ohio counties
as well as cities with populations of 50,000 or more are presented in the
monthly ODJFS Civilian Labor Force Estimates publication. Updated
statewide historical data may be obtained by contacting the Bureau of Labor
Market Information at (614)
752-9494 begin_of_the_skype_highlighting (614)
752-9494 end_of_the_skype_highlighting. Ohioans can
access tens of thousands of job openings, for positions ranging from file clerks
to CEOs, at www.ohiomeansjobs.com.
News
release dates
A calendar of 2011 release dates is available online at http://OhioLMI.com/laus/releases.htm.
County, city and metropolitan area unemployment rates for July 2011 will be
posted online at http://OhioLMI.com/laus/current.htm
on Tuesday, August 23, 2011. August 2011 unemployment rates and nonagricultural
wage and salary data for Ohio will be released by ODJFS on Friday, September 16,
2011. This information and the monthly statistical summaries it is based on are
also available at http://jfs.ohio.gov/releases.
Choose this link to view the table on the Ohio and U.S.
Employment Situation.
Choose this link to view the table for the Nonagricultural Wage and Salary
Employment Estimates for Ohio.
Bill Calls for Extending Loan Limits
Courtesy of Realtor Magazine
Bill Calls for Extending Loan Limits
Daily Real Estate News | Monday, July 18, 2011
A bill introduced late last week calls for extending the current conforming loan limits on government-backed mortgages at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac for another two years.
The bill, introduced by Rep. John Campbell, R-Calif., and Rep. Gary Ackerman, D-N.Y., would allow the government-sponsored enterprises and the Federal Housing Administration to guarantee or buy mortgages worth up to $729,750 in many neighborhoods.
The current loan limits are set to expire Oct. 1. If an extension isn’t granted, the maximum mortgage amount in high-cost areas will drop from $729,750 to $625,500 (however, that limit will vary throughout the country).
“With the economy remaining fragile and the housing sector still struggling to recover, now is not the time to make the cost of mortgages more expensive,” Ackerman said.
The National Association of Home Builders has said it fears more than 17 million homes nationwide will become ineligible for more affordable federal funding if the loan limit expires. However, last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke saidhe was confident that the private market, including investors and insurers, would fill the void if the conforming loan limits expired — although likely at a higher cost to borrowers.
Source:“Lawmakers Introduce Bipartisan Bill to Extend Conforming Loan Limits,” HousingWire (July 15, 2011)
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Spike in Distressed Property Sales Is A Healthy Sign, Says Moody’s
Spike in Distressed Property Sales Is A Healthy Sign, Says Moody’s
May 25, 2011 10:14 AM, By Matt Hudgins, NREI Contributing Writer
An index of U.S. commercial real estate prices fell to a cyclical low in March that was down 47% from the peak in October 2007. So why should investors be happy?
The Moody’s/REAL National All Property Price Index measures price changes on completed sales of apartment, office, industrial and retail properties. A 4.2% decline in the index since February stems in part from a surge in transaction volume among distressed properties, which accounted for more than 30% of March sales.
Click chart to enlarge
Mushrooming trading of distressed assets means that investors and lenders are realizing losses on their distressed assets on a massive scale. Experts say that process is painful, but those price corrections must occur in order for the nation’s commercial real estate market to regain its footing and for overstretched property owners to de-lever and bring cash flows into positive territory.
“Importantly, we’ve now set a post-peak low in the all-property index simultaneously with a post-peak high in distress transactions,” observes Tad Philipp, director of commercial real estate research at Moody’s Investors Service, which publishes the index.
In other words, the decline in the all-property index doesn’t necessarily mean commercial real estate values are dropping. The recent dip is more a reflection of the larger proportion of transactions involving distressed assets, which bring down the average. Indeed, in primary markets where distress represents only a small fraction of transaction volume, asset values are well into a recovery cycle.
Primary price leaders
“The commercial real estate world in the five or six primary markets is as active as it has ever been in terms of desire for the properties and pricing, the backdrop being that interest rates are low,” says Bill Collins, an executive managing director who oversees the capital markets group at Cassidy Turley in Washington, D.C.
With risk-averse investors focused on a handful of gateway markets that include places like New York City, San Francisco and the nation’s capital, competitive bidding has been pushing up transaction prices in those metros for some time, Collins says.
“You’ve got a lot of capital looking to be placed,” says Collins. “The fact that there’s only 60% leverage available and 40% equity required to close a deal really doesn’t matter; people don’t need to stretch their dollars because they have this accruing pool of dollars they need to place.”
Indeed, Moody’s researchers found that average prices in the primary markets already show marked improvement. An index of non-distressed, trophy properties — those valued at $10 million or more and located in one of six major U.S. markets — in March showed property prices have risen 26.7% from a trough in December 2009.
(The six cities covered in the index are Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles, New York, San Francisco and Washington.)
In fact, pricing gains are evident among trophy assets even when distressed transactions are included in the calculation. A separate Moody’s index measuring trophy property sales including distressed deals indicates that prices have risen 22.9% since that index bottomed in July 2009. “This is consistent with liquidity in the commercial real estate sector first returning to prime assets in capital-attracting cities,” says Philipp.
Crank up the volume
A recent pick-up in transaction volume is a sign that the U.S. commercial real estate market is on the mend, because moving distressed properties through the system sets the stage for recovery, according to Moody’s.
In March, there were 182 repeat-sales transactions totaling nearly $2.5 billion, a significant increase over February’s $1.26 billion volume and 115 repeat sales. March had the second-highest number of repeat-sale transactions since 2008, the total only exceeded by that of December 2010, which benefitted from being the end of the year.
Moody’s uses repeat sales, or multiple sales of the same property over time, to calculate price changes in its indices. Looking at the larger transaction spectrum, sales of U.S. commercial real estate valued at $5 million or more totaled more than $28 billion in the first quarter of 2011, up 77% from $15.9 billion one year earlier, according to Real Capital Analytics.
Moody’s national indices showed declining prices across property types in the first quarter. Industrial recorded the largest decline, falling 7.7% from the previous quarter to a post-peak low. Office was down 7.1% from the previous quarter but was up 1.9% from its low in the third quarter of 2009.
Apartments were down 4.7% from the fourth quarter of 2010, but were up 14.1% from that sector’s low in the third quarter of 2009. Retail was down 4.5% from the previous quarter but up 9.4% from a bottom in the second quarter of 2010.
Investors can expect the all-property price index to “bounce along the bottom” until more distressed assets move through the market, Philipp predicts.
On a positive note, the special servicers that handle distressed conduit loans in commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) are resolving those debts at a rate about equal to the pace of CMBS debts falling into delinquency. That is resulting in a fairly stable delinquency rate, which stands at 9.22%.
Taken together with swelling transaction volume, the commercial real estate industry appears to be making progress in dealing with distress, says Philipp. “The resolution process for this transaction cycle appears to be well under way.”
What is happening to the Mortgage Rates? (Feb 2010)
Many purchasers have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for home prices to hit bottom. They want to guarantee that they are purchasing at the best possible price. Like them, we also believe that prices still have some room to fall in most markets. However, we disagree that waiting is a good financial decision. The buyer should not be concerned about housing prices. They should be concerned about cost.
The cost of a house is made up of the price AND THE INTEREST RATE they will be paying. Two different pieces of news released yesterday highlight this point.
PRICES
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their 4th quarter housing research report [4]. In the release, they reported that home sales rose 15.4% in the 4th quarter over the 3rd quarter. They also showed that prices remained stable during the year:
The national median existing single-family price was $170,600 in the fourth quarter, up 0.2 percent from $170,300 in the fourth quarter of 2009.
A buyer who delayed a purchase might find solace in the fact that prices have not increased. However, the other news released yesterday paints a different picture.
INTEREST RATES
The Primary Mortgage Market Survey [5] was released by Freddie Mac which showed that the 30 year fixed rate mortgage was at 5.05%. Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist of Freddie Mac said:
“Long-term bond yields jumped on positive economic data reports, which placed upward pressure on mortgage rates this week…As a result, interest rates on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to the highest level since the last week in April 2010.”
So prices have remained stable but interest rates have risen dramatically in the last 90 days. What does that mean to a buyer looking to purchase a home this year?
The price is the same. It just costs more.
Let’s show you what the news means:
By sitting on the sidelines for the last 90 days a purchaser lost:
- $89.44 a month
- $1,073.28 a year
- $32,198.40 over the thirty year life of the mortgage
If you buy a $340,000 home, double all these numbers.
Bottom Line
Even if prices fall another 10% this year, the cost of a home will increase if interest rates go up more than 1%. Buyers should not worry where prices are going. They should be concerned where costs will be later in the year.
Courtesy of Steve Gatermann and Wells Fargo
Steven Gatermann
Branch Manager
Wells Fargo Home Mortgage
MAC m6919-011
161 Northland Blvd. Suite D
Cincinnati, OH 45246
513.326.0212 Tel
800.846.2240 x 12 Toll Free
513.618.9488 Fax
steven.gatermann@wellsfargo.com
http://www.stevegatermann.com
October Jobs Report ‘Not a Blowout Number’, Says Bach
October Jobs Report ‘Not a Blowout Number’, Says Bach
Nov 5, 2010 2:32 PM, By Matt Valley, NREI Editor
The October employment report released Friday morning by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which showed employers added 151,000 net new payroll jobs, is not a blowout number by any means, says Bob Bach, chief economist for national real estate brokerage services firm Grubb & Ellis.
“But along with other indicators such as the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices, factory orders, vehicle sales and consumer spending, it suggests the economy is slowly gathering momentum,” he emphasizes.
Indeed, the ISM Manufacturing Index showed a rise from 54.4 in September to 56.9 in October, putting the manufacturing sector in expansion for the 15th consecutive month. A reading above 50 indicates an expanding manufacturing sector.
What’s more, in October the seasonally adjusted annual rate for new vehicle retail sales, which is what sales would be if the rate remained constant for a year, increased to about 10.2 million, the highest mark for the year, according to the Detroit Free Press
But the better-than-expected job growth figures in October (forecasters had expected a gain of about 60,000 jobs) failed to make a dent in the national unemployment rate, which remained unchanged at 9.6%, according to a separate survey of households.
Because the household survey does a better job than the nonfarm payroll survey of tracking changes in employment at small businesses and among the self-employed, the lack of change in the unemployment rate in October is “a sign that small businesses remain stressed,” says Bach.
Among some of the highlights in the latest jobs report:
• The private sector added 159,000 jobs, while the government subtracted 8,000 jobs, primarily at the local level.
• The August and September nonfarm payroll numbers were revised higher by a combined 110,000.
• Since employment bottomed last December, the labor market has expanded by 874,000. “This is just 10% of the jobs lost in 2008 and 2009, and the rate of improvement has been disappointing, but the trend is up,” says Bach.
• Average monthly job growth in the private sector this year was 79,000 in the first quarter, 118,000 in the second quarter and 122,000 in the third quarter. October’s 159,000 spike in private-sector jobs provides a running start for the fourth quarter, Bach believes.
• The growth in nonfarm payroll jobs in October was led by education and health services with a gain of 53,000. Meanwhile, professional and business services jobs rose 46,000 (including 34,900 temporary jobs) and retail employment rose 27,900. Manufacturers laid off 7,000 workers.
• Average hourly earnings and average weekly hours both increased slightly.
For a more detailed analysis of the government’s monthly jobs report, click here.
Unemployement Rate Update Ohio (Aug 2010)
Ohio and U.S. Employment Situation (Seasonally Adjusted)
Ohio’s unemployment rate was 10.1 percent in August, down slightly from 10.3 percent in July, according to data released this morning by the Ohio Department of Job and Family Services (ODJFS). Ohio’s nonfarm wage and salary employment decreased 15,400 over the month, from the revised 5,046,600 in July to 5,031,200 in August.
“Ohio’s unemployment rate decreased for the fifth consecutive month.” ODJFS Director Douglas Lumpkin said. “We are cautiously optimistic that Ohio’s job market will continue to improve.”
The number of workers unemployed in Ohio in August was 601,000, down from 614,000 in July. The number of unemployed has decreased by 37,000 in the past 12 months from 638,000. The August unemployment rate for Ohio was down from 10.7 percent in August 2009.
The U.S. unemployment rate for August was 9.6 percent, about unchanged from 9.5 percent in July.
Total Nonagricultural Wage and Salary Employment (Seasonally Adjusted)
Ohio’s nonfarm payroll employment fell 15,400 over the month, from 5,046,600 in July to 5,031,200 in August according to the latest business establishment survey conducted by ODJFS.
Service-providing employment dropped 9,100 to 4,222,700. The largest decrease was posted in professional and business services (-8,800). Also down were government (-5,000), financial activities (-3,200), and educational and health services (-900). Employment increased over the month in trade, transportation, and utilities (+5,900), leisure and hospitality (+1,500), other services (+1,300), and information (+100). Goods-producing industries, at 808,500, declined 6,300 from July. Losses in nondurable goods (-4,000) and durable goods (-1,100) reduced the workforce in manufacturing 5,100. Construction lost 1,200 jobs. Mining and logging was little changed.
Over the past 12 months, nonagricultural wage and salary employment advanced 7,300. Goods-producing employment increased 8,400. Manufacturing added 10,400 jobs as higher employment in durable goods (+11,900) exceeded a reduction in nondurable goods (-1,500). Construction decreased 2,000. Mining and logging was unchanged. Service-providing industries declined 1,100 from August 2009. Sectors with lower employment were financial activities (-13,000), government ( 6,500), information (-4,100), trade, transportation, and utilities (-2,400), and other services (-1,700). Employment was up in professional and business services (+15,200), leisure and hospitality (+9,000), and educational and health services (+2,400).
- 30 -
EDITOR’S NOTE: All data cited are produced in cooperation with the U. S. Department of Labor. Data sources include Current Population Survey (U.S. data); Current Employment Statistics Program (nonagricultural wage and salary employment data); and Local Area Unemployment Statistics Program (Ohio unemployment rates). More complete listings of the data appear in the monthly Ohio Labor Market Review. Unemployment rates for all Ohio counties as well as cities with populations of 50,000 or more are presented in the monthly ODJFS Civilian Labor Force Estimates publication. Updated statewide historical data may be obtained by contacting the Bureau of Labor Market Information at (614) 752-9494 begin_of_the_skype_highlighting (614) 752-9494 end_of_the_skype_highlighting. Ohioans can access tens of thousands of job openings, for positions ranging from file clerks to CEOs, at www.ohiomeansjobs.com.
News release dates
A calendar of 2010 release dates is available online at http://OhioLMI.com/laus/releases.htm County, city and metropolitan area unemployment rates for August 2010 will be posted online at http://OhioLMI.com/laus/current.htm on Tuesday, September 21, 2010. September 2010 unemployment rates and nonagricultural wage and salary data for Ohio will be released by ODJFS on Friday, October 22, 2010. This information and the monthly statistical summaries it is based on are also available at http://jfs.ohio.gov/releases.
Choose this link to view the table on the Ohio and U.S. Employment Situation.
Choose this link to view the table for the Nonagricultural Wage and Salary Employment Estimates for Ohio.
Apartments and Offices Score in Second Quarter
Apartments and Offices Score in Second Quarter
Aug 23, 2010 10:26 AM, By Ben Johnson, NREI Contributor
Real Estate Research Corporation’s (RERC’s) investment conditions ratings for the institutional apartment and central business district (CBD) office sectors each jumped a full point during second quarter 2010, making them the two highest-rated property types that RERC surveys.
The findings are included in the RERC’s new summer report, Riding the Edge of Success.
The investment conditions ratings are based on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being higher and most favorable.
For the apartment sector the rating increased to 7.1 during second quarter 2010 from 6.1 during the first quarter. The investment conditions rating for the CBD office sector increased to 6.0 during the second quarter, up from 5.0 for the first quarter.
“These high ratings reflect the increased investment prospects we are seeing for commercial real estate in general,” said Ken Riggs, RERC president and CEO. “Institutional investors skittish about the slowing economy and the volatility and risk exhibited in the stock market are finding the diversification, stability, and higher absolute returns of the commercial real estate asset class increasingly attractive.”
Although the apartment sector, long-recognized as the commercial property type that generally possesses better risk-versus-return characteristics, has often presented an investment conditions rating higher than those for other property types RERC rates, it has not had a rating this high since second quarter 2001, when the rating was 7.4 on the same scale.
Basically, that means that apartment investments are proving to be safer bets during slowed economic times and are meeting the strategic initiatives of most investors.
“I wouldn’t say the apartment sector is ‘recession-proof,’ but it is the sector that is regarded as ‘most safe’ and also seems to garner the most demand when times are tough, whether it is in this recession or the last one,” said Riggs.
Financing Update forum at CABR
FINANCING UPDATE INFO DAY AT CABR
The CABR REALTOR/Lender Committee has put together two programs on August 12th to help you meet the needs of potential buyers by helping them find mortgage financing.
Ohio Housing Finance Agency (OHFA) Programs Update
Thursday, August 12, 2010 • 9 a.m. – 12 noon
Instructor: Dana Smith, OHFA
Fee: $30 CABR members/$40 all others
Credit: 3 hours of Ohio elective credit
As a real estate agent you are usually the homebuyer’s first contact, it is important for you to understand OHFA’s programs and know how to determine your customers’ eligibility. OHFA is bringing this continuing education course specifically designed for real estate agents.
CABR will be hosting OHFA representative Dana Smith to help you understand how OHFA may be able to help your buyers. Dana will cover two essential parts of OHFA’s current programs:
First-Time Homebuyer Program
• How the First-Time Homebuyer Program can benefit buyers, sellers and agents
• Updates and changes to the First-Time Homebuyer Program
• Additional financial assistance options
OHFA Program Updates
• The current MCC Program
• New Grants for Grads Assistance Option
• Homebuyer Education program requirements
Don’t miss this opportunity to find out about financing opportunities that are available for your potential buyers.
CLICK HERE to register under the Education Module
u Renovation Financing Opportunities with 203K Loans – FREE Forum
Thursday, August 12•12:30 – 2:30 pm
Where can tomorrow’s property values improve today’s business prospects? Learn about this important tool for homeownership opportunities. The 203(k) is HUD’s primary program for the rehab and repair of single family properties. A panel of lending experts will explain all of the details including:
► Renovation Loan Options
► One-time Close Renovation Mortgages
► Stages of the Renovation Loan Process
► “After-Improved” Appraisals
► Role of the HUD Consultant
► Feasibility Study
► Work Write-Up
► Benefits for the Real Estate Agent
Sign-up now and learn how you can help buyers purchase a homes that need repairs with just one loan.
CLICK HERE to register under the Event Module
If you have any questions or need help registering, please contact Annette Chmiel , CABR Director of Education at achmiel@cabr.org or 513-842-3011.
